No one likes it when luck is referred to when evaluating the performance of hockey players and teams. [url=http://www.rangersapp

Posted in IYH Forums by jokergreen0220 at 09:20, Jun 14 2017

No one likes it when luck is referred to when evaluating the performance of hockey players and teams. Ivan Rodriguez Rangers Jersey . It goes against our ingrained notion, particularly in sports, that hard work is rewarded and that players create their own luck. But, the truth is, there are so many things that happen on the ice over which a single player has little to no control. Advanced stats pioneer Gabriel Desjardins has taken the position that, in a given season, 38% of the standings results are luck-driven. (Start with shootouts and go from there.) When it comes to individual players, there are a couple of numbers to look at to see if a player has been lucky, getting the bounces, whatever, and that is contributing to better-than-expected results. On-ice shooting percentage refers to the 5-on-5 shooting percentage of all players when a particular player is on the ice. League average goaltending offers about a .922 save percentage in 5-on-5 situations so, naturally, average on-ice shooting percentages come in at 7.8%. Not every player shoots the puck with the same effectiveness, but even the best skaters can only have so much impact on a metric that involves four other skaters at any given time. Very few players can, over the long haul, generate a substantially higher on-ice shooting percentage because it is so dependent on the performance of others. Sure, Sidney Crosby can hover over 11% and random fourth-liners hang around 5% year after year, but somewhere in between is where the vast majority of players fall. (Since 2007, among skaters to play at least 1000 minutes at 5-on-5, 592 of 796 skaters -- 74.4% -- fall between 6.5% and 9.0% on-ice shooting.) The opposite angle of that percentage game is a players on-ice save percentage during 5-on-5 situations and this is another number that, over a larger sample, is beyond a skaters control. A lot of it will depend on the goaltender, though a factor like quality of competition can play into those results too. If youre facing top lines every night, for example, its not easy to hold their shooting percentages to five or six percent. While the standard short-form measure for whether a player has been lucky is PDO (which combines on-ice shooting and save percentages), I thought I would break it into components because, while the tendency is to have a PDO around 1000 over the long haul, there are players that are outside that range. Of 796 skaters to play at least 1000 5-on-5 minutes over the past seven seasons, 39 players have a cumulative PDO higher than 102.00, while 44 players have a PDO lower than 98.00. That leaves 713 of 796 (89.6%) within that 98-102 range. What Ive done is pulled out those players that have the largest differential from their previously-established on-ice shooting and save percentages to see who has benefited or being punished, essentially, by luck. (minimum 1000 5-on-5 minutes 2007-2013; 500 5-on-5 minutes this season) HIGH ON-ICE SHOOTING Francois Beauchemin, D, Anaheim 2007-2013 On-ice SH%: 6.86 2013-14 On-ice SH%: 11.30 Difference: +4.44 Vladimir Sobotka, C, St. Louis 2007-2013 On-ice SH%: 5.91 2013-14 On-ice SH%: 9.14 Difference: +3.23 Ryan Getzlaf, C, Anaheim 2007-2013 On-ice SH%: 9.51 2013-14 On-ice SH%: 12.62 Difference: +3.11 Tyler Bozak, C, Toronto 2007-2013 On-ice SH%: 8.43 2013-14 On-ice SH%: 11.40 Difference: +2.97 Its difficult for individual players to affect on-ice shooting percentage, but especially so for defencemen, because they tend not to shoot the puck as often as forwards. So, Francois Beauchemin being far above his previous norms can be tied to spending a lot of his time on the ice with Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry. Oh, and it turns out that Getzlaf is even having more success than usual this year. Blues C Vladimir Sobotka is an interesting case because hes spent much of his career as a third and fourth-liner, and been plenty effective in that role, but with St. Louis, hes had the opportunity to move up the depth chart. His most common linemates have been Jaden Schwartz and Vladimir Tarasenko, much better than typical checking line fare, and that should be at least part of the reason for his dramatic increase. Then we get to Tyler Bozak, the Maple Leafs centre who has come under so much criticism in recent seasons, but has quieted critics this season, scoring 45 points in 53 games. Certainly, Bozak reaps the rewards of playing with Phil Kessel and James van Riemsdyk on Torontos top line, but thats not unfamiliar territory -- Bozak has played a lot with Kessel over the years -- so the conclusion to be drawn from this is that Bozak (like anyone far exceeding their established norms) is likely due for some regression because, no matter how much of a Tyler Bozak supporter you might be, theres no argument to be made that he somehow creates scoring chances at the same calibre of Sidney Crosby over the long haul. LOW ON-ICE SHOOTING Bryan Bickell, LW, Chicago 2007-2013 On-ice SH%: 9.05 2013-14 On-ice SH%: 5.88 Difference: -3.17 Kris Letang, C, Pittsburgh 2007-2013 On-ice SH%: 9.00 2013-14 On-ice SH%: 5.74 Difference: -3.26 Dan Cleary, RW, Detroit 2007-2013 On-ice SH%: 7.90 2013-14 On-ice SH%: 4.58 Difference: -3.32 Steve Ott, C, St. Louis 2007-2013 On-ice SH%: 8.03 2013-14 On-ice SH%: 4.43 Difference: -3.60 Matt Hendricks, LW, Edmonton 2007-2013 On-ice SH%: 6.68 2013-14 On-ice SH%: 3.05 Difference: -3.63 Alex Ovechkin, RW, Washington 2007-2013 On-ice SH%: 9.54 2013-14 On-ice SH%: 5.66 Difference: -3.88 Steve Bernier, RW, New Jersey 2007-2013 On-ice SH%: 8.46 2013-14 On-ice SH%: 4.39 Difference: -4.07 Alexander Edler, D, Vancouver 2007-2013 On-ice SH%: 8.12 2013-14 On-ice SH%: 3.88 Difference: -4.22 Ville Leino, LW, Buffalo 2007-2013 On-ice SH%: 8.52 2013-14 On-ice SH%: 3.53 Difference: -4.99 While this season has obviously been far from ideal for Blackhawks LW Bryan Bickell following his tremendous 2013 playoff performance, he has scored 10 goals, his most since 2010-2011, while playing 11:18 per game. However, Bickell has also managed just two assists in 53 games -- the last one coming December 30 -- so no one is doing much scoring with Bickell on the ice and, in the rare instances that they do, hes rarely part of the scoring play. Veterans Dan Cleary and Steve Bernier run into fourth-line problems. Theres no guarantee that skating on the fourth line is going to leave you with an on-ice shooting percentage that low, but thats not going to happen with a full season on the first line either. To an extreme, look at what has happened with Matt Hendricks, already starting from a relatively low point and still finding a way to cut that percentage more than in half -- he hasnt recorded an assist in 27 games with Edmonton. Ville Leino and, since traded Steve Ott suffer from the effects of playing together in Buffalo, apparently. Kris Letang and Alexander Edler counted among the unluckiest defencemen, epecially so in Letangs case since his most common forwards have been Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang and Evgeni Malkin -- not exactly lacking in finishing skill. Of course, we cant ignore Alex Ovechkin, who has spent plenty of time with Nicklas Backstrom and Marcus Johansson, but Ovechkin has been the only one on the Capitals scoring when hes on the ice 5-on-5. In those situations, Ovechkin has 20 goals on 215 shots (9.3%) and the rest of the Capitals on the ice with him have combined for 10 goals on 309 shots (3.2%). Its such a dramatic departure from Ovechkins previous levels, that it doesnt reasonably figure to be the new norm, unless the Capitals decide to keep skating Ovechkin with Jay Beagle on a regular basis. HIGH ON-ICE SAVE PERCENTAGE Paul Ranger, D, Toronto 2007-2013 On-ice SH%: 88.76 2013-14 On-ice SV%: 93.58 Difference: +4.82 Kyle Clifford, LW, Los Angeles 2007-2013 On-ice SH%: 91.75 2013-14 On-ice SV%: 95.41 Difference: +3.66 Nikita Nikitin, D, Columbus 2007-2013 On-ice SV%: 90.73 2013-14 On-ice SV%: 94.32 Difference: +3.59 John Mitchell, C, Colorado 2007-2013 On-ice SV%: 91.71 2013-14 On-ice SV%: 95.21 Difference: +3.50 Marco Scandella, D, Minnesota 2007-2013 On-ice SH%: 90.76 2013-14 On-ice SV%: 94.09 Difference: +3.33 John-Michael Liles, D, Carolina 2007-2013 On-ice SH%: 90.99 2013-14 On-ice SV%: 94.32 Difference: +3.32 Anze Kopitar, C, Los Angeles 2007-2013 On-ice SH%: 91.48 2013-14 On-ice SV%: 94.70 Difference: +3.22 Cody McLeod, LW, Colorado 2007-2013 On-ice SV%: 91.91 2013-14 On-ice SV%: 95.08 Difference: +3.17 Maxime Talbot, RW, Colorado 2007-2013 On-ice SV%: 91.56 2013-14 On-ice SV%: 94.73 Difference: +3.17 Alexei Emelin, D, Montreal 2007-2013 On-ice SV%: 89.68 2013-14 On-ice SV%: 92.84 Difference: +3.16 When you see the list of players that have experienced higher-than-normal save percentages, it doesnt seem to indicate anything more than they are playing in front of goaltenders having strong seasons and thats fine, but given the variance in goaltending from year to year, thats not something upon which you would like to base your opinion of a skater. Paul Ranger is at the extreme end, but his data also has a large gap for the years that he didnt play between the Lightning and the Leafs. Kyle Clifford and Anze Kopitar have strong goaltending in Los Angeles, but theyve had strong goaltending in the past, so it sure seems that theyre extra fortunate this year. The Colorado trio of John Mitchell, Cody McLeod and Maxime Talbot is certainly reaping the rewards of Semyon Varlamovs play. Its those fortuitous percentages that leave them with positive plus-minus numbers despite subpar puck possession stats. Where the value comes in seeing these numbers is in terms of perception. Nikita Nikitin or Marco Scandella may not be held in terribly high regard, but these numbers show that there is some luck involved in their respective plus ratings this season, the type that would be due to regress in time. LOW ON-ICE SAVE PERCENTAGE Pavel Datsyuk, C, Detroit 2007-2013 On-ice SV%: 92.33 2013-14 On-ice SV%: 89.26 Difference: -3.07 Eric Nystrom, LW, Nashville 2007-2013 On-ice SV%: 92.38 2013-14 On-ice SV%: 89.29 Difference: -3.09 Michal Rozsival, D, Chicago 2007-2013 On-ice SV%: 92.51 2013-14 On-ice SV%: 89.40 Difference: -3.11 Frans Nielsen, C, N.Y. Islanders 2007-2013 On-ice SV%: 91.85 2013-14 On-ice SV%: 88.64 Difference: -3.21 Michael Grabner, LW, N.Y. Islanders 2007-2013 On-ice SV%: 91.57 2013-14 On-ice SV%: 88.25 Difference: -3.32 Dustin Byfuglien, RW, Winnipeg 2007-2013 On-ice SV%: 92.03 2013-14 On-ice SV%: 88.66 Difference: -3.37 Dmitry Kulikov, D, Florida 2007-2013 On-ice SV%: 92.89 2013-14 On-ice SV%: 89.49 Difference: -3.40 Mike Cammalleri, LW, Calgary 2007-2013 On-ice SV%: 92.06 2013-14 On-ice SV%: 88.59 Difference: -3.47 Ryane Clowe, LW, New Jersey 2007-2013 On-ice SV%: 92.21 2013-14 On-ice SV%: 88.72 Difference: -3.49 Keith Ballard, D, Minnesota 2007-2013 On-ice SV%: 93.41 2013-14 On-ice SV%: 89.88 Difference: -3.53 Taylor Pyatt, LW, Pittsburgh 2007-2013 On-ice SV%: 93.83 2013-14 On-ice SV%: 90.07 Difference: -3.76 T.J. Galiardi, LW, Calgary 2007-2013 On-ice SV%: 92.00 2013-14 On-ice SV%: 88.18 Difference: -3.82 Patrik Elias, LW, New Jersey 2007-2013 On-ice SV%: 91.58 2013-14 On-ice SV%: 87.67 Difference: -3.91 Lee Stempniak, RW, Pittsburgh 2007-2013 On-ice SV%: 92.74 2013-14 On-ice SV%: 88.38 Difference: -4.36 On the other end of the save percentage spectrum, is it a collection of players that are clueless around their own end? Not especially. Theres an all-time great two-way forward, Pavel Datsyuk, and a puck-rushing defenceman-turned-forward Dustin Byfuglien that might be considered at opposite ends of the defensive spectrum by some, but it really appears to be a random list that includes both offensive and defensive players. Are they players who have had some shaky goaltending behind them this year? Yes. Stempniak, Galiardi and Cammalleri have been victims of Calgarys subpar puck-stoppers, while Elias and Clowe take some lumps with New Jerseys goaltending. This group consists of the players that have been unlucky relative to previous seasons and, aside from Pyatt and Stempniak, who joined Pittsburgh in-season, the rest are all on teams that rank in the bottom third of save percentage this season. The takeaway, then, is not to worry so much about Stempniak being minus-21 in 52 games with the Flames because, with better goaltending alone, he would be due to improve, and hes quickly plus-5 in his first 15 games with Pittsburgh. Patrik Elias may be a minus player, but he continues to be a strong possession player whose numbers would appear more favourable with the randomness of better goaltending when hes on the ice. Thats the story to be revealed by some of these numbers, that some players are getting good breaks this year, others arent and, in the relatively small sample of a single season of hockey, these things happen. Over time, those numbers tend to even out, so the players that have been fortunate this year, may be hard-pressed to duplicate their success, while those that have been getting a bit of a raw deal could be expected to have better days ahead. Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out TSN Fantasy on Facebook. Joey Gallo Rangers Jersey . -- New York Yankees centre fielder Jacoby Ellsbury was sent for an MRI Thursday of his ailing right calf, which was negative. Prince Fielder Jersey . -- Quarterback Josh Johnson has returned to the San Francisco 49ers and his former college coach, Jim Harbaugh. http://www.rangersapparelsshop.com/ivan-rodriguez-jersey-c-6/ . The Grizzlies erased most of a 25-point deficit before Durant, the leagues scoring champion, got hot.Bournemouth boss Eddie Howe says his side have shown vast improvement since their last encounter with Manchester City. The Cherries were hammered 5-1 at the Etihaad last October, but with the exception of a 3-0 defeat at Tottenham on March 20, Howe has been delighted with the teams performances in recent months.I think naturally we have moved on, hopefully for the better but that will be tested in the performance, said Howe ahead of Saturdays clash with Manuel Pellegrinis side at Dean Court. That game last year was a difficult one for us. We conceded very early and when you go away it does make it more difficult. The key thing is we learned from that and we have become a better team for the experience.I still feel the players are confident despite the Tottenham game, which was a really disappointing performance. We still feel as though we need results and points. I dont think we can afford to step off, and we will try and deliver. Raheem Sterling scores Manchester Citys first goal past Adam Federici of Bournemouth in October Although Citys form in the Premier League has dipped since the club announced Pep Guardiola will be taking charge of the team next season, Pellegrini remains focused on securing a place in the top four prior to his departure. Custom Texas Rangers Jersey. He is still their manager so it changes nothing for us, added Howe. It has been a difficult season for them - probably a season where they had such high expectations and things havent gone quite the way they wanted them to.They are still in arguably the biggest competition, the Champions League, and if they can still win that then they will be looking back on an historic season for them. Also See: Bournemouth video Bournemouth fixtures Bournemouth stats Get a free ￡10 bet Cheap NFL Jerseys Wholesale Jerseys Wholesale NFL Jerseys Jerseys From China Wholesale NFL Jerseys Cheap NFL Jerseys Cheap Jerseys ' ' '